Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 12.4 in
- RP forecast
- 12.4 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.4 in | 12.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.5 in | 11.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.7 mph | 96.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.1 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 117 | 106 | 107 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 108 | 110 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.4% | 47.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.9% | 29.7% | 30.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.9% | 28.7% | 30.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 31.5% | 38.5% | 40.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.3% | 41.6% | 39.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 29.2% | 28.2% | 30.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 42.7% | 43.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.4% | 54.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.0% | 50.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.2% | 1.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 39.9% | 41.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |