Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.3 in
- RP forecast
- 4.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.3 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.8 mph | 93.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.0 in | 6.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 85 | 86 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.6% | 48.2% | 48.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.1% | 28.2% | 28.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.4% | 24.0% | 25.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.5% | 39.6% | 41.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.8% | 40.0% | 37.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 21.9% | 20.9% | 23.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 2.9% | 3.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 82.0% | 82.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.2% | 27.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.3% | 13.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 46.9% | 48.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.1% | 13.3% | — |