Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 18.1 in
- RP forecast
- 18.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 18.1 in | 18.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.9 in | 6.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.7 mph | 93.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.0 in | 3.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.0 in | 13.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.5% | 47.4% | 47.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.8% | 29.1% | 29.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.2% | 25.9% | 27.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.9% | 46.4% | 48.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.7% | 40.6% | 38.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.4% | 17.4% | 19.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 47.1% | 47.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.6% | 38.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.7% | 13.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.3% | 36.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.9% | 14.1% | — |