Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.3 in
- RP forecast
- 3.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.3 in | 3.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.0 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.3 mph | 91.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.7 in | 6.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.6 in | 13.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 98 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.0% | 49.6% | 49.4% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.3% | 28.4% | 29.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.8% | 21.6% | 23.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.5% | 38.4% | 40.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.6% | 38.1% | 35.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 21.6% | 19.5% | 21.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 54.7% | 55.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 38.1% | 38.2% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 20.3% | 20.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.4% | 6.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.2% | 33.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.3% | 21.5% | — |