Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 13.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.88 | 1.48 | 18.8% | 11.0% | 44.7% |
| RP · chosen | 4.42 | 1.44 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 46.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.3 in | 13.2 in | 13.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.0 in | 3.0 in | 3.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.9 mph | 93.5 mph | 93.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.7 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.9 in | 8.0 in | 8.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 48.2% | 47.4% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.4% | 27.0% | 27.6% | 27.6% |
| Whiff rate | 27.9% | 23.9% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.8% | 44.7% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.6% | 40.2% | 37.7% | 37.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.1% | 18.8% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 54.6% | 55.1% | 55.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 40.8% | 40.9% | 40.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 14.1% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 39.3% | 40.5% | 40.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.0% | 17.2% | 17.2% |