Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.30 | 1.33 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 40.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.84 | 1.29 | 26.1% | 10.4% | 42.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.9 in | 5.8 in | 5.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.4 in | 14.4 in | 14.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.5 mph | 97.1 mph | 97.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.0 in | 11.1 in | 11.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.6 in | 17.7 in | 17.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 103 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 45.1% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.2% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 27.9% | 27.2% | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.6% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.9% | 38.9% | 36.5% | 36.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.0% | 24.1% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.3% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.6% | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.6% | 40.2% | 40.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 24.1% | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.4% | 15.6% | 15.6% |