Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 5.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.73 | 1.42 | 18.0% | 9.3% | 44.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.27 | 1.39 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 46.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.9 in | 5.9 in | 5.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.3 mph | 96.9 mph | 96.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.8 in | 7.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 48.3% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.8% | 26.8% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Whiff rate | 23.5% | 22.1% | 23.9% | 23.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.9% | 44.3% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.4% | 42.9% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.3% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 18.1% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 74.9% | 74.9% | 74.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.8% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 24.4% | 24.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.8% | 18.0% | 18.0% |