Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 17.3 in
Loading projection…
| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.51 | 1.40 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 46.6% |
| RP · chosen | 4.05 | 1.36 | 21.7% | 9.9% | 48.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.4 in | 17.3 in | 17.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.3 in | 7.3 in | 7.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.1 mph | 95.7 mph | 95.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.4 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.3 in | 17.4 in | 17.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 47.6% | 47.3% | 47.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.2% | 30.4% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Whiff rate | 25.6% | 23.7% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.8% | 46.6% | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.9% | 38.3% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.0% | 19.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.9% | 59.9% | 59.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.5% | 43.1% | 43.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 38.2% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.1% | 36.3% | 36.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% |