Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 18.2 in
- RP forecast
- 18.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 18.2 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 0.5 in | 0.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.4 mph | 93.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.3 in | 9.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.4 in | 14.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 50.2% | 50.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.9% | 30.9% | 31.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.6% | 18.4% | 20.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 54.4% | 49.8% | 51.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 13.9% | 15.0% | 17.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 22.0% | 22.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.1% | 62.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.0% | 35.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.8% | 14.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.9% | 23.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 20.7% | — |