Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.31 | 1.31 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 43.7% |
| RP · chosen | 3.85 | 1.27 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 45.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.1 in | 7.0 in | 7.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | 95.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.7 in | 11.8 in | 11.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.3 in | 18.5 in | 18.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 44.5% | 47.0% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.3% | 30.5% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| Whiff rate | 27.0% | 25.1% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.8% | 43.7% | 45.8% | 45.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.9% | 39.4% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.9% | 22.2% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.7% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.7% | 45.8% | 45.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.9% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 27.9% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.0% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.7% | 20.0% | 20.0% |