Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.7 in
- RP forecast
- 9.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.7 in | 9.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.6 in | 6.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 107 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | — |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 49.6% | 49.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.4% | 29.8% | 30.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.7% | 26.6% | 28.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 16.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 31.8% | 40.9% | 42.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.4% | 38.8% | 36.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 31.1% | 26.2% | 28.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.0% | 38.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.5% | 58.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.2% | 39.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.9% | 2.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.5% | 36.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.9% | 11.1% | — |