Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 5.00 | 1.41 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 39.2% |
| RP · chosen | 4.55 | 1.37 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 41.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -0.2 in | -0.1 in | -0.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.1 mph | 90.7 mph | 90.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.2 in | 7.3 in | 7.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.5 in | 14.6 in | 14.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 86 | 92 | 93 | 93 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 90 | 92 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Zone rate | 46.1% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.8% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Whiff rate | 24.8% | 21.1% | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.8% | 39.2% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.3% | 39.8% | 37.4% | 37.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.8% | 16.4% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 55.6% | 56.1% | 56.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 34.8% | 34.9% | 34.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 19.8% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.6% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.5% | 23.7% | 23.7% |