Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.78 | 1.39 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 38.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.32 | 1.35 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 40.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.2 in | 7.1 in | 7.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.7 in | 16.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.0 mph | 94.6 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.4 in | 5.6 in | 5.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.9 in | 11.1 in | 11.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 88 | 89 | 89 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.0% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.2% | 28.4% | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| Whiff rate | 22.3% | 19.8% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.0% | 38.5% | 40.5% | 40.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.9% | 41.4% | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.1% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.4% | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.3% | 53.3% | 53.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 47.9% | 48.5% | 48.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.0% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% |