Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.4 in
- RP forecast
- 13.3 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.4 in | 13.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.4 mph | 97.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.9 in | 5.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 32.0% | 42.0% | 41.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 53.8% | 34.7% | 35.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 41.7% | 31.0% | 32.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 0.0% | 26.3% | 28.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 40.3% | 37.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 16.7% | 11.0% | 11.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.7% | 19.4% | 21.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 43.4% | 44.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 41.1% | 41.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.9% | 23.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.3% | 2.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 12.0% | 12.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 40.0% | 41.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.5% | 15.7% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable