Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.84 | 1.43 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 41.6% |
| RP · chosen | 4.38 | 1.39 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 43.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.7 in | 8.6 in | 8.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | 17.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | 96.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.8 in | 10.9 in | 10.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.7 in | 3.8 in | 3.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 49.6% | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.8% | 27.9% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| Whiff rate | 25.2% | 23.2% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.3% | 41.6% | 43.6% | 43.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.7% | 44.0% | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 17.4% | 18.6% | 20.7% | 20.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 15.3% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.8% | 52.8% | 52.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 47.2% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 31.9% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.3% | 30.6% | 30.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.3% | 15.6% | 15.6% |