Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.4 in
- RP forecast
- 3.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.4 in | 3.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.3 mph | 92.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.2 in | 7.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.9 in | 14.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 96 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 85 | 85 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 50.4% | 50.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.0% | 26.6% | 27.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.6% | 22.2% | 24.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 39.2% | 41.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.5% | 40.4% | 37.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.7 pp | 0.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.3% | 16.4% | 18.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.8% | 41.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 36.7% | 36.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.1% | 24.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.9% | 24.0% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.8% | 27.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.7% | 22.9% | — |