Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.19 | 1.27 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 37.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.73 | 1.23 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 39.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.1 in | 4.0 in | 4.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.3 in | 19.3 in | 19.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.1 mph | 96.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.9 in | 16.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 48.7% | 49.6% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.9% | 30.1% | 30.7% | 30.7% |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 26.0% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.1% | 37.5% | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.7% | 41.9% | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.8% | 24.0% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.2% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.2% | 51.2% | 51.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.9% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 40.0% | 39.1% | 39.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.6% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |