Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 2.7 in
- RP forecast
- 2.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 2.7 in | 2.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.7 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.1 mph | 96.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.4 in | 8.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.8 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.8% | 47.3% | 47.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.0% | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.5% | 24.1% | 25.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.3% | 44.8% | 46.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.8% | 38.0% | 35.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.7% | 22.7% | 24.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.9% | 36.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.3% | 51.3% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.9% | 31.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.5% | 13.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 22.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.0% | 18.3% | — |