Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.80 | 1.39 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 34.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.34 | 1.35 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 36.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.9 in | 3.8 in | 3.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.8 in | 15.8 in | 15.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.7 mph | 94.3 mph | 94.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.4 in | 3.5 in | 3.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.1 in | 10.2 in | 10.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Zone rate | 46.2% | 47.3% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.2% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 27.1% | 25.5% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.2% | 34.9% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 27.7% | 36.9% | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 20.7% | 19.3% | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 74.8% | 75.3% | 75.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 15.5% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 59.1% | 60.3% | 60.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.5% | 14.8% | 14.8% |