Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.9 in
- RP forecast
- 8.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.81 | 1.35 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 35.5% |
| RP | 4.35 | 1.31 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 37.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.9 in | 8.8 in | 8.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.0 mph | 91.6 mph | 91.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.6 in | 8.8 in | 8.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.3 in | 14.4 in | 14.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 94 | 95 | 94 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 93 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Zone rate | 47.7% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 48.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.2% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 18.7% | 20.4% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 31.7% | 35.5% | 37.5% | 35.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.0% | 38.9% | 36.5% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.6% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.4% | 23.9% | 23.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.6% | 61.7% | 61.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.9% | 38.5% | 37.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.6% | 13.7% | 14.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.9% | 22.2% | 20.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | 15.0% |