Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 6.8 in
- RP forecast
- 6.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.93 | 1.36 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 37.0% |
| RP | 4.47 | 1.32 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 39.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.8 in | 6.7 in | 6.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.6 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.4 mph | 92.0 mph | 91.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.0 in | 10.1 in | 10.0 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.2 in | 11.3 in | 11.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 83 | 92 | 94 | 92 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 88 | 90 | 88 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 49.2% | 49.6% | 49.3% | 49.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.3% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 16.2% | 18.7% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.1% | 37.0% | 39.0% | 37.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.8% | 40.9% | 38.5% | 40.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 13.5% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.4% | 37.0% | 36.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 40.4% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.3% | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 23.7% | 22.8% | 23.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.4% | 27.6% | 26.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 22.4% | 21.6% | 22.4% |