Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 15.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.39 | 1.33 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 46.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.93 | 1.29 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 48.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.0 in | 15.0 in | 15.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 8.8 in | 8.8 in | 8.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.7 mph | 93.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 1.8 in | 1.9 in | 1.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.6 in | 15.8 in | 15.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 48.4% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.0% | 27.7% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| Whiff rate | 22.2% | 21.8% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.5% | 46.3% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.2% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.6% | 19.8% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.5% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.1% | 67.2% | 67.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 53.4% | 54.0% | 54.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.2% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% |