Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.5 in
- RP forecast
- 9.5 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.5 in | 9.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.6 in | 14.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.5 mph | 95.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.1 in | 18.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 4.6 in | 4.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 102 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Zone rate | 52.8% | 50.7% | 50.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.3% | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.5% | 25.8% | 27.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.0% | 40.3% | 42.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.8% | 40.0% | 37.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.7% | 24.5% | 26.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 26.7% | 27.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.6% | 69.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.6% | 37.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.6% | 1.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.9% | 31.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.5% | 23.8% | — |