Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.1 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.66 | 1.35 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 36.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.21 | 1.31 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 38.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.1 in | 9.1 in | 9.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.6 in | 18.6 in | 18.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.4 mph | 92.0 mph | 92.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.8 in | 13.9 in | 13.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.5 in | 9.6 in | 9.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 41.6% | 45.3% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.5% | 31.2% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Whiff rate | 27.1% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.7% | 36.5% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.1% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.7% | 20.5% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.9% | 56.9% | 56.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.7% | 40.3% | 40.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 36.9% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.4% | 35.6% | 35.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | 14.2% |