Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.12 | 1.31 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 45.2% |
| RP · chosen | 3.66 | 1.27 | 25.7% | 9.5% | 47.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.9 in | 16.8 in | 16.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.6 in | 7.7 in | 7.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.6 mph | 96.2 mph | 96.2 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.4 in | 5.5 in | 5.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.4 in | 17.6 in | 17.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Zone rate | 43.9% | 46.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.2% | 29.7% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 26.2% | 27.9% | 27.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 45.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.1% | 40.5% | 38.0% | 38.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.7% | 23.6% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.5% | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.5% | 55.5% | 55.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.2% | 37.8% | 37.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.3% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.6% | 15.8% | 15.8% |