Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.36 | 1.34 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 50.2% |
| RP · chosen | 3.91 | 1.30 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 52.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.8 in | 16.7 in | 16.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 7.1 in | 7.2 in | 7.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.9 mph | 97.5 mph | 97.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.3 in | 17.4 in | 17.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | 15.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 109 | 111 | 111 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | 93 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 47.6% | 48.5% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.9% | 33.5% | 34.1% | 34.1% |
| Whiff rate | 23.1% | 22.4% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.8% | 50.2% | 52.2% | 52.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.7% | 38.3% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.4% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 15.8% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.4% | 58.4% | 58.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.4% | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.9% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.4% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% |