Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.0 in
- RP forecast
- 16.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.0 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.8 in | 5.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.1 mph | 96.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.4 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.1 in | 17.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 100 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.7% | 47.1% | 46.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.6% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.9% | 22.4% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.5% | 44.1% | 46.1% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.5% | 41.9% | 39.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.7% | 10.3% | 10.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.0% | 19.7% | 21.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.3% | 41.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.6% | 52.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.8% | 34.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.7% | 3.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 37.3% | 38.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.2% | 16.4% | — |