Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 11.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.77 | 1.37 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 36.0% |
| RP · chosen | 4.31 | 1.33 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 38.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.7 in | 11.6 in | 11.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.8 in | 14.8 in | 14.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.5 mph | 94.1 mph | 94.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.3 in | 3.4 in | 3.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | 17.6 in |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 95 | 96 | 96 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | 94 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 45.5% | 48.3% | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.5% | 31.0% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| Whiff rate | 25.8% | 23.8% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.5% | 36.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.5% | 40.7% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 19.5% | 18.5% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.4% | 36.9% | 36.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.9% | 49.9% | 49.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.2% | 24.8% | 24.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.3% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.2% | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.6% | 13.8% | 13.8% |