Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.6 in
- RP forecast
- 10.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.6 in | 10.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.1 mph | 89.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.2 in | 19.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 9.8 in | 9.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 85 | 91 | 92 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 84 | 86 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 63.6% | 55.8% | 55.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 0.0% | 19.9% | 20.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 0.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.3% | 33.7% | 35.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 33.3% | 39.9% | 37.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 0.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 0.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 2.5% | 3.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.7% | 61.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.3% | 32.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 36.1% | 35.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.0% | 33.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 25.2% | 24.5% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable