Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.57 | 1.39 | 11.5% | 5.9% | 60.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.11 | 1.35 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 62.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.2 in | 4.2 in | 4.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -12.4 in | -12.3 in | -12.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 82.3 mph | 82.9 mph | 82.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.0 in | 18.2 in | 18.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 54.6% | 53.5% | 53.2% | 53.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.9% | 27.6% | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| Whiff rate | 14.5% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 15.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 1.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 63.2% | 60.9% | 62.9% | 62.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 26.8% | 33.5% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 13.6% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 24.9% | 25.4% | 25.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 71.7% | 71.7% | 71.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 67.0% | 67.6% | 67.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.0% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |