Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.3 in
- RP forecast
- 8.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.25 | 1.28 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 40.5% |
| RP | 3.79 | 1.24 | 24.3% | 8.3% | 42.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.3 in | 8.2 in | 8.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.2 in | 14.2 in | 14.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 93.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.2 in | 14.4 in | 14.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.8 in | 16.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Zone rate | 46.6% | 48.1% | 47.8% | 48.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.1% | 29.2% | 29.8% | 29.2% |
| Whiff rate | 23.0% | 23.2% | 25.0% | 23.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.5% | 40.5% | 42.5% | 40.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.1% | 38.5% | 36.1% | 38.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.1% | 22.2% | 24.3% | 22.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 33.9% | 34.4% | 33.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.7% | 53.7% | 53.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.5% | 31.1% | 30.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.8% | 11.9% | 12.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.4% | 29.6% | 28.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.2% | 12.5% | 13.2% |