Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 6.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.15 | 1.31 | 26.5% | 10.3% | 38.5% |
| RP · chosen | 3.69 | 1.27 | 28.6% | 10.6% | 40.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.2 in | 6.1 in | 6.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.0 mph | 95.6 mph | 95.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.4 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.7 in | 10.9 in | 10.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Zone rate | 43.6% | 46.5% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.6% | 28.4% | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| Whiff rate | 33.8% | 31.2% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.5% | 38.5% | 40.5% | 40.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.5% | 42.0% | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 15.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 29.9% | 26.5% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.0% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.4% | 53.4% | 53.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.5% | 43.1% | 43.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 41.1% | 42.3% | 42.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% |