Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 13.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.60 | 1.32 | 18.8% | 7.5% | 35.9% |
| RP · chosen | 4.15 | 1.28 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 37.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.6 in | 13.5 in | 13.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.5 in | 12.5 in | 12.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.4 mph | 91.9 mph | 91.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.5 in | 11.7 in | 11.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.6 in | 18.7 in | 18.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | 91 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 49.5% | 48.8% | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.1% | 28.8% | 29.4% | 29.4% |
| Whiff rate | 20.7% | 21.1% | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 31.6% | 35.9% | 37.9% | 37.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.2% | 39.5% | 37.1% | 37.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.5% | 18.8% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.4% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 62.6% | 62.6% | 62.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 15.9% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.9% | 35.1% | 35.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.8% | 23.0% | 23.0% |