Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.7 in
- RP forecast
- 14.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.7 in | 14.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 9.9 in | 10.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.5 in | 3.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 36.6% | 44.4% | 44.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.1% | 29.4% | 30.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.0% | 24.1% | 25.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 47.6% | 49.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.3% | 40.5% | 38.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 3.7 pp | 3.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 28.6% | 22.3% | 24.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 44.7% | 45.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.5% | 51.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.0% | 32.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 2.0% | 2.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 41.2% | 42.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 16.2% | — |