Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.9 in
- RP forecast
- 10.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.9 in | 10.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.3 in | 13.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.1 mph | 89.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.5 in | 5.7 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 94 | 95 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 43.8% | 46.8% | 46.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.5% | 27.1% | 27.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 15.1% | 18.1% | 19.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.9% | 41.9% | 43.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 46.9% | 40.8% | 38.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.2 pp | 1.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 9.5% | 13.8% | 15.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.4% | 27.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 54.7% | 54.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.8% | 31.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 17.7% | 16.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.4% | 21.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.1% | 18.3% | — |