Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.1 in
- RP forecast
- 7.0 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.1 in | 7.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.7 in | 15.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.8 mph | 93.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.0 in | 18.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 2.7 in | 2.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 95 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | — |
| Zone rate | 51.8% | 49.5% | 49.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.4% | 26.9% | 27.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 23.4% | 22.2% | 23.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.0% | 40.9% | 42.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.9% | 41.6% | 39.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 18.6% | 16.7% | 18.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 2.9% | 3.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 59.4% | 59.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.7% | 45.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 38.1% | 37.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.7% | 1.1% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.1% | 35.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.4% | 10.7% | — |