Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.5 in
- RP forecast
- 15.5 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.5 in | 15.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.4 in | 2.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.8 mph | 94.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.8 in | 11.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.5% | 50.0% | 49.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 23.9% | 27.0% | 27.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 27.1% | 24.4% | 26.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.9% | 44.2% | 46.2% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.3% | 41.1% | 38.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.8% | 20.6% | 22.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 48.8% | 49.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.9% | 48.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.0% | 31.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.0% | 2.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.7% | 32.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.3% | — |