Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.3 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.52 | 1.37 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 44.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.06 | 1.34 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 46.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.3 in | 9.3 in | 9.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | 94.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.5 in | 15.6 in | 15.6 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.9 in | 4.0 in | 4.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Zone rate | 44.7% | 46.9% | 46.6% | 46.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.9% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 25.5% | 24.5% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.9% | 44.3% | 46.3% | 46.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 45.1% | 42.7% | 40.3% | 40.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.2% | 20.5% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 35.3% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 40.9% | 40.9% | 40.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 24.1% | 24.6% | 24.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 25.0% | 24.1% | 24.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.2% | 24.4% | 24.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.5% | 22.8% | 22.8% |