Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 3.6 in
- RP forecast
- 3.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.59 | 1.18 | 29.6% | 9.1% | 40.0% |
| RP | 3.13 | 1.14 | 31.7% | 9.3% | 42.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.6 in | 3.5 in | 3.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.6 in | 18.7 in | 18.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.6 mph | 97.2 mph | 96.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.7 in | 3.8 in | 3.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.4 in | 17.5 in | 17.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 102 | 104 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Zone rate | 42.4% | 45.3% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.8% | 30.9% | 31.5% | 30.9% |
| Whiff rate | 33.3% | 31.4% | 33.2% | 31.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.5% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 40.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.5% | 38.0% | 35.6% | 38.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 34.9% | 29.6% | 31.7% | 29.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 45.8% | 46.3% | 45.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.0% | 45.1% | 45.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.5% | 36.0% | 35.5% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.1% | 32.3% | 31.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.5% |