Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 16.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 5.11 | 1.51 | 19.0% | 11.3% | 41.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.66 | 1.47 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 43.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | 16.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.9 in | 7.0 in | 7.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.9 mph | 95.5 mph | 95.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.0 in | 3.2 in | 3.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.9 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 44.8% | 45.5% | 45.3% | 45.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.6% | 30.6% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Whiff rate | 27.3% | 27.4% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 13.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.5% | 41.3% | 43.3% | 43.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.8% | 45.0% | 42.6% | 42.6% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 21.8% | 19.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.9% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 44.8% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 21.1% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 21.1% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.1% | 20.3% | 20.3% |