Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.27 | 1.30 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 35.6% |
| RP · chosen | 3.82 | 1.26 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 37.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.6 in | 8.5 in | 8.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.8 in | 18.9 in | 18.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.0 mph | 94.6 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.3 in | 18.5 in | 18.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.7 in | 6.9 in | 6.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 47.7% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.8% | 30.6% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Whiff rate | 31.5% | 28.5% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.0% | 35.6% | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.2% | 40.8% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.3% | 24.8% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.3% | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.7% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.9% | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 21.0% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.6% | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.5% | 16.7% | 16.7% |