Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.5 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.89 | 1.21 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 35.4% |
| RP · chosen | 3.43 | 1.17 | 28.9% | 8.6% | 37.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.5 in | 4.4 in | 4.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.9 in | 18.9 in | 18.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.1 mph | 97.7 mph | 97.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.9 in | 3.1 in | 3.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 114 | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 112 | 113 | 113 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 50.1% | 49.9% | 49.7% | 49.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 38.6% | 32.9% | 33.5% | 33.5% |
| Whiff rate | 30.5% | 29.2% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.0% | 35.4% | 37.4% | 37.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.0% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp | -0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 28.5% | 26.9% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.8% | 35.4% | 35.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.9% | 61.9% | 61.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 58.3% | 58.9% | 58.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.6% | 33.8% | 33.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |