Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 10.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.48 | 1.38 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 43.5% |
| RP · chosen | 4.02 | 1.34 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 45.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.4 in | 10.3 in | 10.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.3 in | 14.4 in | 14.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.0 mph | 94.5 mph | 94.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.0 in | 18.1 in | 18.1 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | 17.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 104 | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 50.2% | 49.4% | 49.2% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.5% | 26.4% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| Whiff rate | 23.9% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.9% | 43.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.6% | 41.2% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.6% | 20.7% | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 33.7% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 35.7% | 36.3% | 36.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.0% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.4% | 19.6% | 19.6% |