Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.7 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.48 | 1.32 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 32.8% |
| RP · chosen | 4.02 | 1.28 | 26.6% | 9.9% | 34.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.7 in | 7.6 in | 7.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 19.3 in | 19.3 in | 19.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.0 mph | 97.6 mph | 97.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 2.0 in | 2.2 in | 2.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.7 in | 12.8 in | 12.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 111 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 107 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 48.1% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.8% | 30.9% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Whiff rate | 30.1% | 26.7% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 12.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.1% | 32.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.2% | 43.3% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.1% | 24.5% | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 20.6% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 66.4% | 66.4% | 66.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 55.1% | 55.7% | 55.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.1% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.3% |