Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 6.7 in
Loading projection…
| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.81 | 1.20 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 39.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.35 | 1.17 | 29.3% | 8.6% | 41.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.8 in | 6.7 in | 6.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.1 in | 16.2 in | 16.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.0 mph | 96.6 mph | 96.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.1 in | 6.2 in | 6.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 114 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 109 | 111 | 111 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 49.4% | 49.8% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 40.7% | 33.6% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| Whiff rate | 35.5% | 30.8% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 39.9% | 39.8% | 41.8% | 41.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.6% | 38.8% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 32.7% | 27.2% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 47.2% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.6% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 45.5% | 46.1% | 46.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 44.5% | 45.7% | 45.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |