Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.1 in
- RP forecast
- 4.0 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.1 in | 4.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.3 in | 17.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.5 in | 4.6 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 17.2 in | 17.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 103 | 104 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.8% | 49.7% | 49.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.0% | 31.2% | 31.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 31.0% | 28.9% | 30.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.0% | 36.0% | 38.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.3% | 38.5% | 36.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.0 pp | -0.0 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.7% | 22.9% | 25.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 59.1% | 59.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 37.9% | 37.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.6% | 26.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 56.0% | 57.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.9% | 9.2% | — |