Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.0 in
- RP forecast
- 12.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.0 in | 12.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -8.4 in | -8.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 88.5 mph | 89.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.7 in | 16.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 48.1% | 47.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 35.9% | 31.5% | 32.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 19.1% | 18.5% | 20.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.8% | 54.3% | 56.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.0% | 39.6% | 37.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 15.5% | 14.3% | 16.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.0% | 32.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 64.2% | 64.2% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 54.4% | 55.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.4% | 1.7% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.5% | 30.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |