Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.54 | 1.33 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 36.3% |
| RP · chosen | 4.09 | 1.29 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 38.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.4 in | 9.3 in | 9.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.2 in | 16.3 in | 16.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.9 mph | 93.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 19.5 in | 19.7 in | 19.7 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.6 in | 3.7 in | 3.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 96 | 97 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 103 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | 91 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 49.0% | 49.4% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.5% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 30.1% |
| Whiff rate | 33.3% | 26.9% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.5% | 36.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.6% | 40.6% | 38.1% | 38.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.7% | 20.9% | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 20.3% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 43.9% | 43.9% | 43.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.4% | 39.0% | 39.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 37.5% | 36.6% | 36.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 33.8% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% |