Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.3 in
- RP forecast
- 3.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.3 in | 3.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.7 in | 15.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.6 mph | 92.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.3 in | 4.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.7 in | 10.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 37.6% | 44.3% | 44.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.1% | 29.5% | 30.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.4% | 22.3% | 24.1% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.9% | 41.3% | 43.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.4% | 37.4% | 35.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.5% | 17.4% | 19.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 43.2% | 43.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 42.7% | 42.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.2% | 30.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.8% | 13.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 39.8% | 41.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | — |