Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 14.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 14.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.70 | 1.39 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 46.4% |
| RP · chosen | 4.24 | 1.35 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 48.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.2 in | 14.2 in | 14.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 3.3 in | 3.3 in | 3.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.5 mph | 90.1 mph | 90.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.1 in | 13.2 in | 13.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.9 in | 6.0 in | 6.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 99 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Zone rate | 48.7% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.4% | 26.2% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Whiff rate | 22.2% | 19.4% | 21.1% | 21.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.2% | 46.4% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 30.5% | 37.9% | 35.5% | 35.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.4% | 16.6% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 33.8% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.4% | 56.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.1% | 38.7% | 38.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.6% | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.8% | 13.0% | 13.0% |